Post by Retro Jimbue on Apr 11, 2008 10:34:43 GMT -5
i thought you guys would like to read this:
Rarely can you get a laugh from an online writer. This dude calls himself The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short, and what you’ll read below is hysterical… especially if you’ve seen “Havoc”.
They choked.
Many will say Kansas made an amazing comeback. But they are wrong. Memphis choked.
Many say Megan Fox is hotter than Anne Hathaway. But they are wrong.
Many say that the hair island I have on my head looks ridiculous but they are … OK, they're probably right about that one. Sigh.
If Derrick Rose makes this shot, Mario Chalmers doesn't get the chance to make his.
But back to Memphis choking. From my vantage point, they choked. Kansas made two incredible shots, no question, but if Memphis makes its free throws, those shots don't matter. So Memphis choked.
My friend Danni Boatwright, who smugly texts me "Rock Chalk!" every time Kansas wins, would disagree with me. And I humbly suggest it is all in how you choose to interpret the data.
Life is full of choices. Like, last week, when I said, "That was amazing, Jennifer." What I should have said was, "That was amazing, Jessica."
I am talking, of course, about the home-cooked meal she made me.
From the smallest things of whether you take the stairs or ride the elevator that morning, all the way to who you marry or, more importantly, who you let pitch for you, you are constantly asked to make choices.
I get asked all the time what my job is (and, ahem, why I still have it).
Depending on who asks, I consistently have a different answer. But one could argue, if they ran out of actual interesting stuff to argue about and were locked in a small room with no electricity, that my job is continually helping people make choices.
Here are two stats:
Player A: Tied for second in the league in saves, his K/9 rate is the highest it's been in three seasons.
Player B: An ERA over 12 this season, he has blown a save and taken two losses in his past three games.
You're probably not surprised when I tell you that Player B is Trevor Hoffman. Are you surprised if I tell you that Player A is … Trevor Hoffman?
He's tied for second in the National League in saves and one of the losses for Hoffman was in the same game as the blown save. The truth that fantasy analysts won't tell you (and it's not relegated to just fantasy analysts) is that we can come up with a stat to back up whatever point we are trying to make, especially when given limited time on TV, radio or online video, or given tight word counts. (I get 500 words for my column in ESPN The Magazine). Even with a column, you don't want to read paragraphs upon paragraphs about players. Trust me on this.
So what I do is interpret the data and make a recommendation on what kind of stats and analysis I want to present to you, gentle reader. (Note: When I say that, I am assuming you are both gentle and can read.)
How you interpret the data I offer is up to you. And with that, I bring you to the season's first edition of "Just Saying." Did it a lot last season, folks seem to dig it and if you don't know what it is, I suspect you'll catch on quick.
Just Saying …
… That with his two steals Monday, Michael Bourn is now on pace to steal 138 bases. You know, if he gets even half of that, it'll be a pretty good season.
… That Miguel Tejada now has two home runs this season and (dating back to 2007) 13 home runs in his past 234 at-bats. Since 1999, he has never had less than 500 at-bats in a season.
Justin Verlander has 10 strikeouts and 4 walks in 11 innings.
… That despite looking horrible the past two games, Justin Verlander's 1.29 WHIP and .234 batting average against are right in line with his career numbers. His strikeout-walk rate is actually better than it was last year.
… That Tony Pena has yet to give up an earned run through four games. And Brandon Lyon has blown two of his past three saves opportunities.
… That going back to last season, Hoffman has blown the save or taken the loss in four of his past six games. I choose to believe in "Player B."
… That after falling behind early, the "Anne Hathaway is hotter than Megan Fox" train has picked up a lot of steam. People choosing to search for scenes from the movie "Havoc" seem to have helped the cause.
… That the last time Ben Broussard got more than 400 at-bats (2006), he hit 21 home runs. He already has three homers this season, and he's playing every day.
… That according to the White Sox's official Web site, and contrary to some reports, Jerry Owens isn't due back any time real soon, and even if he was, he's not necessarily getting a starting job back.
… That dating back to last season, Mark Reynolds has 11 home runs in his past 140 at-bats. That is a very good pace. He has four home runs in his past four games. That is a fantastic pace. He is owned in only 15 percent of ESPN.com standard leagues.
… That I said in my "You Heard Me" column in the preseason that Jeff Keppinger of the Reds would have double-digit steals and home runs and hit better than .300. I may have undershot.
Dusty Baker may choose to pull Bronson Arroyo more often if the latter continues his home-run surrendering ways.
… That since he joined the Reds in 2006, no pitcher in baseball has given up more home runs than Bronson Arroyo. Here's the list, courtesy of the good folks at ESPN research:
Most home runs allowed since 2006
Bronson Arroyo, 64*
Livan Hernandez, 63
Jamie Moyer, 63
Mark Buehrle, 60
Carlos Silva, 59
* Allowed four home runs on Monday versus the Phillies.
… That the combined staff ERA of the St. Louis Cardinals' starting pitchers is 0.96.
… That even considering that fact and his two great starts, I wouldn't start Kyle Lohse on your team. But Brad Thompson I do like.
… That Dennis Sarfate of the Orioles already has two wins in relief. I don't see the Orioles blowing a lot of teams out, so those looking for vulture wins should take note.
… That for a guy that folks kept saying wasn't going to play, it's interesting that Gary Matthews Jr. has the third most at-bats of anyone in the American League. And he's hitting .333.
… That Jason Kendall is leading the National League in batting average. I hate Jason Kendall.
… That Joe Crede is leading the American League in RBIs. See Kendall, Jason.
… That I thought the ads for "Iron Man" looked pretty cool …
… But that the ads for "Speed Racer" looked terrible. I'm so disappointed.
David Murphy has joined the ranks of Anne Hathaway and Ivanka You know what among the people the TMR has an unhealthy obsession for.
… That David Murphy of the Rangers is hitting .409. I might be a little obsessed.
… That Delmon Young has the sixth most at bats in the American League. He is hitting .290. He has only two RBIs and no home runs. He went 13 and 10 last year. But it took him 645 at-bats. That's a lot.
… That Chan Ho Park is back in the majors, now pitching middle relief for the Dodgers. Just so you can correctly know where to ignore him.
… That I still believe in Matt Kemp. How quickly folks forget he hit .342 last year with double-digit steals and home runs in just under 300 at bats.
… That I've gotten a lot of panic e-mails about Miguel Cabrera. Remember, he has at least 33 home runs in three of the past four years, at least 112 RBIs in each of his past four and hasn't hit lower than .320 since 2004. If you can get him for anything other than Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins or maybe Matt Holliday, do it and don't think twice.
… That I thought this was a particularly good article about me, for those who care about such things: click here.
Matthew Berry -- the Talented Mr. Roto -- is ESPN's senior director of fantasy. He was just as surprised as you to find out it's a real job. He is a multiple award winner from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, including a Writer of the Year award.
Rarely can you get a laugh from an online writer. This dude calls himself The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short, and what you’ll read below is hysterical… especially if you’ve seen “Havoc”.
They choked.
Many will say Kansas made an amazing comeback. But they are wrong. Memphis choked.
Many say Megan Fox is hotter than Anne Hathaway. But they are wrong.
Many say that the hair island I have on my head looks ridiculous but they are … OK, they're probably right about that one. Sigh.
If Derrick Rose makes this shot, Mario Chalmers doesn't get the chance to make his.
But back to Memphis choking. From my vantage point, they choked. Kansas made two incredible shots, no question, but if Memphis makes its free throws, those shots don't matter. So Memphis choked.
My friend Danni Boatwright, who smugly texts me "Rock Chalk!" every time Kansas wins, would disagree with me. And I humbly suggest it is all in how you choose to interpret the data.
Life is full of choices. Like, last week, when I said, "That was amazing, Jennifer." What I should have said was, "That was amazing, Jessica."
I am talking, of course, about the home-cooked meal she made me.
From the smallest things of whether you take the stairs or ride the elevator that morning, all the way to who you marry or, more importantly, who you let pitch for you, you are constantly asked to make choices.
I get asked all the time what my job is (and, ahem, why I still have it).
Depending on who asks, I consistently have a different answer. But one could argue, if they ran out of actual interesting stuff to argue about and were locked in a small room with no electricity, that my job is continually helping people make choices.
Here are two stats:
Player A: Tied for second in the league in saves, his K/9 rate is the highest it's been in three seasons.
Player B: An ERA over 12 this season, he has blown a save and taken two losses in his past three games.
You're probably not surprised when I tell you that Player B is Trevor Hoffman. Are you surprised if I tell you that Player A is … Trevor Hoffman?
He's tied for second in the National League in saves and one of the losses for Hoffman was in the same game as the blown save. The truth that fantasy analysts won't tell you (and it's not relegated to just fantasy analysts) is that we can come up with a stat to back up whatever point we are trying to make, especially when given limited time on TV, radio or online video, or given tight word counts. (I get 500 words for my column in ESPN The Magazine). Even with a column, you don't want to read paragraphs upon paragraphs about players. Trust me on this.
So what I do is interpret the data and make a recommendation on what kind of stats and analysis I want to present to you, gentle reader. (Note: When I say that, I am assuming you are both gentle and can read.)
How you interpret the data I offer is up to you. And with that, I bring you to the season's first edition of "Just Saying." Did it a lot last season, folks seem to dig it and if you don't know what it is, I suspect you'll catch on quick.
Just Saying …
… That with his two steals Monday, Michael Bourn is now on pace to steal 138 bases. You know, if he gets even half of that, it'll be a pretty good season.
… That Miguel Tejada now has two home runs this season and (dating back to 2007) 13 home runs in his past 234 at-bats. Since 1999, he has never had less than 500 at-bats in a season.
Justin Verlander has 10 strikeouts and 4 walks in 11 innings.
… That despite looking horrible the past two games, Justin Verlander's 1.29 WHIP and .234 batting average against are right in line with his career numbers. His strikeout-walk rate is actually better than it was last year.
… That Tony Pena has yet to give up an earned run through four games. And Brandon Lyon has blown two of his past three saves opportunities.
… That going back to last season, Hoffman has blown the save or taken the loss in four of his past six games. I choose to believe in "Player B."
… That after falling behind early, the "Anne Hathaway is hotter than Megan Fox" train has picked up a lot of steam. People choosing to search for scenes from the movie "Havoc" seem to have helped the cause.
… That the last time Ben Broussard got more than 400 at-bats (2006), he hit 21 home runs. He already has three homers this season, and he's playing every day.
… That according to the White Sox's official Web site, and contrary to some reports, Jerry Owens isn't due back any time real soon, and even if he was, he's not necessarily getting a starting job back.
… That dating back to last season, Mark Reynolds has 11 home runs in his past 140 at-bats. That is a very good pace. He has four home runs in his past four games. That is a fantastic pace. He is owned in only 15 percent of ESPN.com standard leagues.
… That I said in my "You Heard Me" column in the preseason that Jeff Keppinger of the Reds would have double-digit steals and home runs and hit better than .300. I may have undershot.
Dusty Baker may choose to pull Bronson Arroyo more often if the latter continues his home-run surrendering ways.
… That since he joined the Reds in 2006, no pitcher in baseball has given up more home runs than Bronson Arroyo. Here's the list, courtesy of the good folks at ESPN research:
Most home runs allowed since 2006
Bronson Arroyo, 64*
Livan Hernandez, 63
Jamie Moyer, 63
Mark Buehrle, 60
Carlos Silva, 59
* Allowed four home runs on Monday versus the Phillies.
… That the combined staff ERA of the St. Louis Cardinals' starting pitchers is 0.96.
… That even considering that fact and his two great starts, I wouldn't start Kyle Lohse on your team. But Brad Thompson I do like.
… That Dennis Sarfate of the Orioles already has two wins in relief. I don't see the Orioles blowing a lot of teams out, so those looking for vulture wins should take note.
… That for a guy that folks kept saying wasn't going to play, it's interesting that Gary Matthews Jr. has the third most at-bats of anyone in the American League. And he's hitting .333.
… That Jason Kendall is leading the National League in batting average. I hate Jason Kendall.
… That Joe Crede is leading the American League in RBIs. See Kendall, Jason.
… That I thought the ads for "Iron Man" looked pretty cool …
… But that the ads for "Speed Racer" looked terrible. I'm so disappointed.
David Murphy has joined the ranks of Anne Hathaway and Ivanka You know what among the people the TMR has an unhealthy obsession for.
… That David Murphy of the Rangers is hitting .409. I might be a little obsessed.
… That Delmon Young has the sixth most at bats in the American League. He is hitting .290. He has only two RBIs and no home runs. He went 13 and 10 last year. But it took him 645 at-bats. That's a lot.
… That Chan Ho Park is back in the majors, now pitching middle relief for the Dodgers. Just so you can correctly know where to ignore him.
… That I still believe in Matt Kemp. How quickly folks forget he hit .342 last year with double-digit steals and home runs in just under 300 at bats.
… That I've gotten a lot of panic e-mails about Miguel Cabrera. Remember, he has at least 33 home runs in three of the past four years, at least 112 RBIs in each of his past four and hasn't hit lower than .320 since 2004. If you can get him for anything other than Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins or maybe Matt Holliday, do it and don't think twice.
… That I thought this was a particularly good article about me, for those who care about such things: click here.
Matthew Berry -- the Talented Mr. Roto -- is ESPN's senior director of fantasy. He was just as surprised as you to find out it's a real job. He is a multiple award winner from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, including a Writer of the Year award.