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Post by Retro Jimbue on Mar 26, 2007 15:57:16 GMT -5
Bill James has developed a computer model to simulate game play as a method of proving or disproving his theories. Someone suggested to James that Babe Ruth was so formidable in 1921 that American League pitchers would have been better served to intentionally walk him every time he stepped to the plate. So James batted Ruth fourth in a lineup that featured historically weak hitters... in fact Al Weis was the second baseman. James then configured the computer model to play 154 games and walk Ruth, regardless of situation, every time up. The results were overwhelmingly against the automatic walk. Ruth, and his 1.000 OBP, dramatically improved the stats of all the other hitters in the lineup. Despite Ruth’s dominance, he still recorded an out approximately 6 times for every 10 plate appearances.
If you haven't read the Bill James book on baseball your missing a great read. Interesting tidbits about players and a unique way of rating all the players at all the positions.
About Don Mattingly he writes "100% Baseball Player 0% Bull $hit"!!!.......that's all he wrote about him and it says it all.
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Post by True2theblue on Mar 26, 2007 16:41:09 GMT -5
What's his book called?
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Post by Retro Jimbue on Mar 26, 2007 16:54:44 GMT -5
"the baseball abstract"
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Post by True2theblue on Mar 26, 2007 16:56:51 GMT -5
Thanks, I'll take a look at it.
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Post by Retro Jimbue on Mar 26, 2007 17:01:26 GMT -5
you won't regret it......he deffinately thinks outside the box.....i like that!!
I was reading a section in which James tried to normalize ERAs across all decades. He said the standard league ERA should be set at 3.75. That makes sense because historically the average score of a MLB game is 5 - 3. That would represent 8 total runs divided by two teams, which makes it 4 runs per game per team (normalizing every team to 81 - 81) and factor in some unearned runs and you get your 3.75. During the Deadball Era and during the mid-sixties to the mid-seventies league ERAs we're probably in the 3.25 - 3.50 range. During the 1930s and since 1993 league ERAs probably average 4.25 - 4.50. Therefore the performance of a pitcher who posted a 3.00 ERA in 1997 would be more significant than a pitcher with a 2.25 ERA in 1967. James therefore reset ERAs based on these period fluctuations and Pedro Martinez emerged as the all-time leader. When Pedro Martinez posted is 1.74 ERA in 2000 the AL league average was about 4.75. When Sandy Koufax posted his 1.74 ERA in 1964 the NL league average was 3.25. Pedro's number is astounding because it's about 3 runs below the league average while Koufax's number is just 1 1/2 runs below the league average.
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Post by jbg on Mar 26, 2007 18:53:23 GMT -5
What year is that book Jimbue? I didn't think Bill James put out the Baseball Abstract anymore. I know he published them from about 1980 into the early 90s. Unless you are referring to the New Historical Baseball Abstract. The latest edition of that is 2003. Great book as were all the annual ones he put out. His most recent project and book (I think it came out in 2004) is called Win Shares where he assigns each player on a team a win share value based on their contribution. 3 shares equal one win...something like that. The formula is pretty complicated but it's another interesting read from James.
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Post by Retro Jimbue on Mar 26, 2007 20:04:18 GMT -5
yes that's the one!!!
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